A shifting jet stream could finally bring Britain its first big storm of the season
The story
It's mid October and the UK still hasn't had a single named storm this season. Instead, the big weather story this year has been drought, with reservoirs in southern England so low that some areas have been put under severe drought status. The reason is the jet stream. That fast band of wind high up in the sky usually swings over Britain in autumn and steers rough Atlantic weather straight at us. This year it has mostly stayed off to the north and northwest, letting high pressure take charge. That meant milder air, only a few windy spells in the northwest, and very little rain for much of England and Wales. Parts of Herefordshire have had only about a tenth of their usual October rain so far. That looks set to change. Forecasters expect the jet stream to shift and strengthen over the next week, opening the door for deeper low pressure systems to sweep across more of the country. There's a chance of the first properly disruptive weather of the season later in the week, so it's worth keeping an eye on the forecast. The longer outlook points the same way. The Met Office says the rest of the year has about twice the usual odds of being wetter and a higher than normal chance of being windier, a pattern that tends to show up when El Niño is building in the Pacific. A late start isn't unusual, though. Storms have been named in the UK since 2015, and in roughly half of those years the first one didn't arrive until after November 1. The busiest stretch is usually December through February.
